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Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Who's hot and who's not after winter testing


It's no surprise to learn the dominant team of last season is still the fastest this year, but Mercedes pace was still a surprise for its rivals. Nico Rosberg's fastest time on the soft tyre was more than 0.2s clear of the best from Williams and Ferrari on the super-soft, suggesting a healthy margin over the rest of the field. It should be noted that the Circuit de Catalunya was an unusually strong track for Mercedes last year - it was a full second ahead of its Red Bull in qualifying and nearly two seconds ahead of Ferrari - so while it is undoubtedly still ahead it may not have achieved as great a percentage increase as its rivals. Mercedes won't stand still ahead of the start of the season, however, and the onus is very much the rest of the field to catch up.

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Strength: Unmatchable pace and the best reliability record of the field over the three tests. It sounds like a championship-winning combination to us

Weakness: These things are relative, but both drivers struggled with set-up at the final test with excess oversteer on the medium tyres. It may be an issue isolated to cold track conditions, but worth keeping an eye on

Quickest lap at Circuit de Catalunya: Nico Rosberg 1:22.792 (soft)

Lap count over three tests: 1,350

A good result in Australia: A one-two is expected in both qualifying and the race

A bad result in Australia: Anything other than maximum points

Williams looks like it will still challenge for the best-of-the-rest status it held at the end of last year, but it will face much stiffer competition for the final place on the podium in 2015. As it did in 2014, Williams ticked off all the items on its winter schedule and showed impressive pace on quicker runs, but with key personnel now bedded in this year it should be able to exploit its strengths more easily at the opening races. The FW37 has retained the low-drag characteristics of the FW36, so expect to see it excel on some of the faster tracks, although the team is confident it has addressed the tyre degradation issues it suffered at times last year and made big progress at the final test with an updated rear wing.

Strength: The Mercedes power unit still offers an advantage over Red Bull and Ferrari, but that shouldn't take away from the efficient aero package of the FW37

Weakness: Although the test-spec FW37 is a very good base to start from, Williams still does not have the resources of its rivals and will struggle to match Ferrari and Red Bull like-for-like on upgrades

Quickest lap at Circuit de Catalunya: Valtteri Bottas 1:23.063 (super-soft)

Lap count over three tests:1,069

A good result in Australia: A podium finish or two

A bad result in Australia: Finishing behind Ferrari and Red Bull

Relative to its rivals at the front of the grid, Ferrari appears to have made the most progress over the winter. The team has worked hard to bring the power unit up to a competitive spec, while addressing the numb front end and unpredictable rear end of the F14-T. On a race sim, Kimi Raikkonen was roughly 1.8-2.0s a lap quicker than he was at the Spanish Grand Prix last year - enough to win the race if the SF15-T could travel back in time, but most likely not enough to beat this year's Mercedes. The team is confident planned upgrades to both power unit and chassis will narrow the gap over the course of the year, but in testing spec there is still a big gap.

Strength: A much better behaved car than the F14-T that was quick from the very start of testing

Weakness: Sebastian Vettel suffered from very obvious tyre degradation in the final sector during his quick lap on super-softs, suggesting the SF15-T may have a tendency to lunch its tyres when driven to its very limit

Quickest lap at Circuit de Catalunya: Kimi Raikkonen 1:23.276 (super-soft)

Lap count over three tests: 1,182

A good result in Australia: A podium at the first race would represent big progress on last year

A bad result in Australia: After a strong winter and with two world class drivers, having either car outside the top eight will be a disappointment

The RB11 would be placed higher had it given a clear demonstration of its one-lap pace at the final test, but instead we were left guessing against fuel loads. The chassis and aero package are still considered to be one of the best, if not the best, in the field, but question marks still hang over the Renault power unit - talk in the Barcelona paddock was that the Renault power unit is still significantly down on horsepower. Performance was upgraded at the final two tests and reliability has dramatically increased from 12 months ago, but drivability still remains an issue ahead of the first race.

Strength: Even through the camouflaged livery it was clear to see that the RB11 is very tightly packaged with small sidepod and airbox inlets as well as slim rear end. Neither Daniel Ricciardo nor Daniil Kvyat will be left wanting for downforce this year

Weakness: Top speed is still down on its rivals, which can be attributed to both engine power and downforce/drag trade off. Still, the Renault power unit still seems to be the limiting factor in the overall package

Quickest lap at Circuit de Catalunya: Daniel Ricciardo 1:24.574 (soft)

Lap count over three tests: 943

A good result in Australia: A podium has to be the target … and without exceeding the fuel flow rate like last year

A bad result in Australia: Anything outside the top six will be a poor reward for all the hard work over the winter at Milton Keynes and Viry Chatillon

It would have been hard for Lotus to take a backwards step from last year, but the E23 seems to be a healthy leap forward in every respect. The Mercedes power unit accounts for a lot of that progress, but the team has also addressed a major issue with the floor of the car that made the E22 so unpredictable - both drivers reported a massive imporvement in terms of driveability. Reliability will also be significantly improved and it was reassuring for the team to make it through the whole of pre-season testing with one power unit after the problems it faced last year with Renault power. As a fellow Mercedes customer, Williams is the target but based on testing Lotus still has some way to go to fight for podiums.

Strength: The car is much more stable on the limit than last year's and the team is confident it can find gains in terms of cooling and performance as it gets used to the Mercedes power unit

Weakness: Lotus is still wearing the scars of its financial struggle of the last two years and spent the winter correcting the issues on the E22 rather than forging new ground

Quickest lap at Circuit de Catalunya: Romain Grosjean 1:24.067 (super-soft)

Lap count over three tests: 918

A good result in Australia: The team only scored points on three occasions in 2014, so a double points finish in Melbourne would be very welcome

A bad result in Australia: Failing to score a point would not represent just reward for the progress the team has made over the winter

A major update at the final test saw the STR10 trim down to something much closer to race spec. The original iteration of the car did its job by racking up mileage, especially on the Renault power unit, but the car that turned up at the third test was a much more serious prospect. It shares some design traits with the Red Bull, which is no bad thing, and still completed 442 laps over four days to prove its reliability. Carlos Sainz was caught out by the car twice over the two tests at the Circuit de Catalunya, but one of the accidents was in the high winds that also saw Fernando Alonso crash.

Strength: The team will take confidence from successfully completing race simulations as well as showing respectable one-lap pace on soft tyres

Weakness: As much as the team was impressed by Carlos Sainz and Max Verstappen over the past three tests, it still lacks experience from the cockpit when narrowing set-up choices and chasing problems

Quickest lap at Circuit de Catalunya: Carlos Sainz 1:24.191 (super-soft)

Lap count over three tests:1,206

A good result in Australia: A points finish will be a good result against stiff competition in the midfield

A bad result in Australia: Accidents resulting in DNFs will cast doubt over the all-rookie driver line-up

There were times last year when genuine questions were hanging over whether Sauber would make pre-season testing in 2015, but the C34 has been running strongly since day one in Jerez. From the outside the car doesn't look that special, but the improvements made to the Ferrari power unit and the chassis' weight-loss regime over the winter have made for a much more competitive package this time around. For a team hampered by DNF's in 2014, Sauber will be encouraged by the fact it finished behind Mercedes in terms of miles accumulated over all three tests.

Strength: Impressive one-lap pace throughout pre-season testing bodes well, although how much of that is genuine progress and how much is to impress the new sponsors remains to be seen

Weakness: The car visibly lacks downforce compared to its rivals

Quickest lap at Circuit de Catalunya: Felipe Nasr 1:24.023 (super-soft)

Lap count over three tests:1,245

A good result in Australia: A sniff at the points will be very welcome after a season without getting close last year

A bad result in Australia: A gap to the top 10 of anything over a second per lap

The car didn't emerge until the second day of the final test, but when it did it was impressively reliable and completed more laps than Red Bull and McLaren managed in all four days. It's lap times on the super-softs were nothing special, but considering the first week of any car's life is more about mileage and system checks it should not be too much of a concern. Nico Hulkenberg and Sergio Perez sounded encouraged by the step up from last year's VJM07 but with such a delayed start there will be plenty of learning on the job over the first two or three races.

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Strength: Impressive reliability from day one (even if that was day 10 for its rivals) and the Mercedes power unit

Weakness: The lack of testing time will be felt at the first few races

Quickest lap at Circuit de Catalunya: Nico Hulkenberg 1:24.939 (soft)

Lap count over three tests: 365 (2014 car), 304 (2015 car)

A good result in Australia: Force India has become accustomed to regular points finishes in recent years, but finishing in the top ten will be a huge result at the first race this year

A bad result in Australia: Discovering the car is as far off the pace as the black and white test times from Barcelona

"Potential" was the buzzword at McLaren over the three tests, but the grim reality was an unreliable car unable to get close to maximising its performance. Fernando Alonso's accident on the final day of the second test was another hit for the team, as was Tuesday's news the Spaniard will sit out the Australian Grand Prix on medical advice. Kevin Magnussen, who has just 39 laps of experience with the MP4-30, will take his place.

The onus is on Honda to get the power unit running reliably and in a high state of tune in time for the first race. Honda chief Yasuhisa Arai said the team had used "around" two engines in Barcelona alone. McLaren has completed 24 miles more than Red Bull had managed at this stage last year, but drawing comparisons is not necessarily that useful considering the complexities of the issues faced by both teams. Nevertheless, the MP4-30 is an impressive piece of kit and when it starts running reliably at full performance it could well be a contender for podiums and possibly more.

Strength: Incredibly tight packaging combined with the figures Honda are hoping to get when the power unit is on full song will make for a very competitive car

Weakness: When one reliability issue was solved it usually took less than a day for another one to appear - that's tricky to deal with in testing but almost impossible to deal with on a race weekend

Quickest lap at Circuit de Catalunya: Kevin Magnussen 1:25.225 (soft)

Lap count over three tests: 380

A good result in Australia: There's a slim chance McLaren-Honda could pull off a remarkable turnaround in the limited time before the first race and surprise everyone with pace to match the likes of Red Bull, Ferrari and Williams

A bad result in Australia: Failing to finish with either car would be bad, doing so a couple of seconds off the pace (as the MP4-30 was in testing) would be really bad


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